Regulatory Position
The German gambling regulator (GGL) has declared social betting platforms illegal, specifically naming Polymarket as violating German gambling laws.
Key Regulatory Arguments
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Legal Framework:
- These platforms don’t comply with the 2021 State Treaty on Gambling (GlüStV 2021)
- German law only permits bets on “defined sporting events with verifiable results and clear rules”
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Manipulation Concerns:
- GGL cites “high risk of manipulation” as primary reason for prohibition
- Particularly concerned about platforms allowing bets on non-sporting events (e.g., Ukrainian war outcomes)
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Explicit Ban:
- Platforms like Polymarket are “not a permitted product” under German law
- GGL issued public warning against participation in such platforms
Jurisdictional Contrast
- United States: Prediction markets have largely avoided classification as gambling
- Europe:
- France has successfully removed prominent prediction platforms
- Germany now taking similar hardline approach
Industry Response
Prediction platforms argue their services don’t constitute gambling, though this position is rejected by German regulators who maintain these platforms fall under gambling regulations.
This development reflects Germany’s strict interpretation of gambling laws and its willingness to take enforcement action against prediction markets, creating a challenging regulatory environment for such platforms in the German market.
